2015 NBA Draft Career Rankings

last sports write up for a while folks

With me starting a job in around a week and moving to the SLO area, this will be my last sports article for a while. So, why not end on a BANG.

In all honesty, I think that' I’ve reached a burning point with sports. I find them hard to watch and can see that rigging is pretty common due to sports betting. On top of that, I find that it takes too much of my time, which has affected my ability to sleep and go outside. I am someone who hyper focuses, and changing tasks can be difficult.

My goals in life have also changed. I’m trying to prioritize my health and focus on other passions(music, nature, traveling, holistic health). In the junior year of college, I worked my butt off for that position. I really enjoyed it that year. But when it came to senior year, I got too burnt out. To truly succeed in the industry, it feels like you have to compromise your health to do so.

I also can tell you that I’m pretty bored of sportswriting. These days, it feels like I’m board about everything. It’s probably a tell-tale sign of depression and low testosterone. I’m going to work on trying to fix that through finding a good fitness coach and therapist. I’m hoping that a full time job can help me pay for that.

I must emphasize that I need to cut down on my screen time. Being online too much has hurt me socially and also caused me to get addicted to dopamine. In the modern age, it can be very easy to with how often tech is used in our lives. My eventual goal

I want to thank everyone I’ve met online here. There are so many knowledgable sports fans that I’ve had the pleasure of talking to. I can tell that many of you are going to do great things in life, no matter what you do. Make sure to get rest, take care of your loved ones, and treat everyone with respect. Don’t let sports stress you out or consume too much of your time. In all seriousness, it’s not that important.

This is not to complain but to be honest where I’m at so that all of you understand. I’m not a robot despite what people think. I want to have a life outside of sportswriting and substack. Therefore, I need to make an effort into that instead of complaining all the time.

Regardless, let’s get to the actual project. This one is going to be focused on a re-draft of the 2015 draft. I feel like ten years is around a perfect time to evaluate how strong a draft class it. It’s also long enough to tell you what trends have changed in the NBA. In 2015, the center position was at its lowest point, going through a rebuild. The three point revolution was just starting. Small guards still had a place in the league. It’s important to understand the context of why picks were made. Still, the best minds think ahead instead of conforming to trends.

When it comes to the players, ten years is long enough to see who was a star or not. Who was a late bloomer. Which UDFA’s stuck into the league. Which players busted. How career trends look. It is interesting to see who stuck and who didn’t as it’s always much more interesting than expected.

to help you, I created a google doc showing each players name, draft position, and career expected wins(stat I found on dunksandthrees). I also shared details I found important. The link is right here down below and accessible to everyone:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1xQjWrRWXlJRhWj8KxVb8bxd4hSC3FWnsj_ZKztyIyXM/edit?tab=t.0

Players will be evaluated on their overall career. If a player has stood out for their second contract, I will share a list for the down below. I will also do the same for guys who were drafted early and became busts, or drafted late/undrafted and became a steal. I’ll talk about the analytics and reasons why that happened and see if it was justified or not. I will also bring context into the moves, as the NBA was very different in 2015 than 2025.

Anyways, here’s my list, down below:

Tier 1(Superstars)

1. Karl-Anthony Towns(Kentucky, BIG)(Fr.)(1)

2. Devin Booker(Kentucky, WING)(Fr.)(13)

Career evaluations: Karl-Anthony Towns has been the most dominant player of his class. He started his career off with 4 elite years. He’s been much more inconsistent since, but is still one of the best centers in the NBA.

Devin Booker showed signs of dominance early on, but year 4 is when he started dominating. He’s been an elite player ever since.

Tier 2(stars)

3. Kristaps Porzingis(CB Sevilla, BIG)(4)

Career evaluation: Kristaps Porzingis has been underrated because of his ghastly injury history and constantly being traded. While he started off solid on the Knicks, his best play has been after that, especially during his time in Washington and Boston.

Tier 3(borderline stars)

4. Myles Turner(Texas, BIG)(Fr.)(11)

5. D’Angelo Russell(Ohio State, GUARD)(Fr.)(2)

Career evaluations: Myles Turner never became the superstar some people were expecting, but has still be one of the more reliable 3 and D centers in the league for Indiana over the last 10 years.

D’Angelo Russell has shown flashes of star-level guard play, but is mired by inconsistency and poor defense. There’s a reason why he’s never spent more than 2 full seasons with one team over his career.

Tier 4(Above average starters)

6. Norman Powell(UCLA, GUARD)(Sr.)(46)

7. Josh Richardson(Tennessee, WING)(Sr.)(40)

8. Terry Rozier(Louisville, GUARD)(So.)(16)

9. Bobby Portis(Arkansas, BIG)(So.)(22)

10. Montrezl Harrell(Louisville, BIG)(Jr.)(32)

Career evaluations: Norman Powell leads the list here. He came into the league as a defense-first guy, but then broke out as a scorer in year 5. It’s been up and down since, but he’s coming off a career season last year.

Josh Richardson had 2 years of elite two way play in Miami, but wasn’t the same once he got traded to Philadelphia. Still, he had 4 more years of being a decent NBA talent before falling off recently.

Terry Rozier showed flashes of high level play in Boston before having the best 2 seasons of his career in Charlotte. A gambling scandal and neck injury over the last year has made him a shell of his former self.

Bobby Portia showed some ability in Chicago, but then fell off in Washington and New York. He’s rejuvenated his career in Milwaukee as a sixth man, even if his recent years have been more solid than great.

Montrezl Harrell isn’t in the league anymore, but was of the best 6th men in the league from 2017 to 2022.

Tier 5(Long-term role players)

11. Royce O’Neale(Baylor, WING)(Sr.)(UDFA)

12. Kelly Oubre(Kansas, WING)(Fr.)(15)

13. Kevon Looney(UCLA, BIG)(Fr.)(30)

14. Tyus Jones(Duke, GUARD)(Fr.)(24)

15. T.J. McConnell(Arizona, GUARD)(Sr.)(UDFA)

16. Delon Wright(Utah, GUARD)(Sr.)(UDFA)

17. Larry Nance Jr.(Wyoming, BIG)(Sr.)(UDFA)

Royce O’Neale spent 2 years overseas after being undrafted. Since then, he’s been a steady 3 and D guy for the Jazz, Nets, and Suns over the last 8 years.

Kelly Oubre has been an average starter at small forward for 5 teams over his career. He’s a plus athlete whose main holdup is his mediocre jumper from 3.

Kevon Looney didn’t break out until year 4 to show starter-level play. He’s been up and down since then, but has made a positive impact over each of the last 5 years.

Tyus Jones has been a solid backup since entering the league, but has upped his play over the last 4 years. He’s been a starter over the last 2, but limited defense might return him to his patented backup role.

TJ McConnell is as reliable as it gets for the backup guard position for both Philadelphia and Indiana throughout his career.

Delon Wright kept hopping teams, but had a 6-year run from 2018-2023 as a top guard defender with respectable offense. He’s definitely fallen off in the last 2 years.

Larry Nance Jr. was a versatile big who was a solid passer and useful switch defender, but injuries have limited his value. He’s now in the twilight of his career.

Tier 6(Flashes in the pan)

18. Christian Wood(BIG, UNLV)(So.)(UDFA)

19. Richaun Holmes(BIG, Bowling Green)(Sr.)(37)

20. Willie Cauley-Stein(BIG, Kentucky)(Jr.)(6)

Christian Wood had 4 nice years as a do-it-all athletic big man. Unfortunately, his defensive issues and attitude caused his late entry and early exit in the league. This might seem low, but Wood’s lack of sticking power is a huge red flag.

Richaun Holmes was a nice backup for the 76ers and Suns. He then surprised the Kings with 2 nice years as a starter. He then fell off a cliff over his last 4 years and is currently signed in Europe.

Before drug issues, Willie Cauley-Stein was a versatile defensive big with some playmaking and overall offensive insistency. He only had 2 years as a full time starter, which was surprising for his talent.

Tier 7(Rest of the best)

21. Cameron Payne(Murray State, GUARD)(So.)(14)

22. Trey Lyles(Kentucky, BIG)(Fr.)(12)

23. Pat Connaughton(Notre Dame, WING)(Sr.)(41)

24. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson(Arizona, WING)(So.)(23)

25. Justise Winslow(Duke, WING)(Fr.)(10)

26. Frank Kaminsky (Wisconsin, BIG)(Sr.)(9)

27. Cedi Osman(Anadolu Efes, WING)(31)

28. Javonte Green(Radford, WING)(Sr.)(UDFA)

29. Willy Hernangomez(Real Madrid, BIG)(35)

30. Jerian Grant(Notre Dame, GUARD)(Sr.)(19)

Cameron Payne was known as a meme player during his first few seasons in the league. Then a year 5 COVID bubble breakout came, and he’s been a solid backup point guard since.

Trey Lyles is an inconsistent backup stretch 4 who's hopped around 5 teams since the start of his career.

After breaking into the rotation during his last year in Portland, Pat Connaughton had a 5-year run as a decent wing off the bench for Milwaukee. He’s been awful over the last 2 years, however.

Rondae Hollis-Jeffrson was an elite defender, but his inability to score efficiently or shoot the ball caused him to fall out of the league in only 6 years.

Justise Winslow’s career has been ruined by injuries. He broke out as a solid all-around player in year 4, but then he hurt his back the next year. In his last 4 years in the NBA, he never played above 50 games. Sad to see.

Frank Kaminsky never should’ve been drafted so high due to athleticism and defense concerns. However, he did stick in the league for 8 years because of his shooting and feel for a big man.

Cedi Osman was a league average shooter and mediocre defender who somehow stuck in the NBA for 7 years.

Javonte Green took 4 years to make the NBA post college. He’s been in and out of the league since as a benchwarmer, but did have 1 season of quality play.

Willy Hernangomez played 7 years on 3 teams as a decent rebounding post backup, but was too slow and unathletic to be anything more than a benchwarmer.

Jerian Grant showed flashes of solid play in years 2 and 3 with the Bulls, but then fell off with the magic. He was out of the league 1 year later, and is now playing in Europe.

Treading Water: Andrew Harrison, Justin Anderson, Stanley Johnson, Sam Dekker, Juan Toscano-Anderson Treveon Graham

Rest of the bunch: Quinn Cook, Mario Hezonja, Chris McCullough, RJ Hunter, Dakari Johnson, Branden Dawson, Alfonzo McKinnie, Jordan Mickey, Rakeem Christmas, Anthony Brown, Jared Martin, Darren Hilliard, Jahlil Okafor, Emmanuel Mudiay, Joe Young, Rashad Vaughn

Never played: Nikola Milutinov, Juan Vaulet, Olivier Hanlan, Marcus Thornton, Arturas Gudaitis, Aaron White, Marcus Eriksson, Tyler Harvey, Satnam Singh, Sir’Dominic Pointer, Dani Diez, Cady Lalanne, Nikola Radicevic, JP Tokoto, Dimitrios Agravanis, Luka Mitrovic

Notable steals(2nd round/UDFA): Montrezl Harrell(32), Richaun Holmes(37), Josh Richardson(40), Pat Connaughton(41), Norman Powell(46), Royce O’Neale(UDFA), T.J. McConnell(UDFA), Christian Wood(UDFA), Javonte Green(UDFA)

Montrezl Harrell: Montrezl Harrell was one of the best players in Louisville during his 3 years there. While he was undersized, he was an elite finisher at the rim and grabbed a ton of rebounds. He was consistent every year and kept improving.

It took him 2 years to get going, but Harrell turned into one of the league’s best sixth men thanks to his rim running, rebounding, and hustle. This is a case of scouting for weaknesses instead of strengths. He didn’t have the defense or feel to start, but was still able to carve an impact role in the NBA.

Green flags: year-to-year production(5+ BPM each year, 8+BPM last 2 years), rim%(77.9% on 190 attempts), dunks(74 in 2015), OREB(10.0%)

Richaun Holmes: Holmes showed consistent two-way dominance at Bowling Green over his 3 years there. He was a solid all-around offensive player who blocked a ton of shots. There were level of competition concerns, but it’s obvious that he had a lot of talent.

Holmes only had 2 true years of starter-level play, but was a very good backup before that. Even though he didn’t shoot 3’s for long in the NBA, his athleticism and rebounding translated into a usable player for a while. He hasn’t been that good since 2021, but he’s had a career that most 2nd rounders wish for.

Green flags: year-to-yer production(5+ BPM each year, 8+ BPM last year), rim%(69.0% on 155 attempts), dunks(45 in 2015) REB%(11.5 OREB%, 21.0 DREB%), BLK%(11.3%), FT%(71.1% on 142 attempts)

Josh Richardson: Josh Richardson showed consistent year to year improvement at Tennessee, going from a little-known benchwarmer in 2012 to a high-level starter in 2015. He was one of the conference’s best defenders who consistently made leaps on offense each year.

Even though Richardson’s prime was short, he was the Heat’s best player for 2 years. He combined great defense with efficient offense. After that, he still had a place int he league as a solid starting or bench wing. He was one of the best players int he draft despite being drafted so late.

Green flags: year-to-year production(improved BPM by at least 1 each year, 3 years with 3+ BPM, 2 years with 5+ BPM, 1 year with 7+ BPM), STL%(3.8), BLK%(2.0), AST%(24.4), 3PA increase(37 in 2012 to 128 in 2015), midrange%(44.0% in 2015 on 200 attempts)

Pat Connaughton: He was known as the infamous two-way star in college, as he excelled in baseball and basketball. On the hardwood, he was a plus shooter known for his hops. He never played the biggest role, but could do it well.

While Connaughton has never been a starter, he’s had a long career as a respectable bench player. You can’t complain about getting that in the late second round, even if it doesn’t sound exciting.

Green flags: year to year play(5+ BPM last 3 years, 3+ BPM all 4 years), 3PT%(43.1% on 220 attempts), 3PA(220), dunks(11 on 51 rim makes in 2015), DREB%(20.4)

Norman Powell: Powell was different than most of the other players on the list. He was much different as a college than NBA player. He also didn’t break out until his junior year I’ll talk about him in the second contract guys.

Regardless, he still had signs that he’d be a good NBA player. He had a sculpted frame at 6’4”, played tough defense, and showed signs that he could handle a large offensive role.

Even though his role changed later in his career, his first step to rotation minutes was through his defense and athleticism. Having some sort of solid baseline allowed him to work on his weaknesses that other players wouldn’t get.

Green flags: STL%(3.2), dunks(34 in 2015), rim%(60.8% on 217 attempts)

Royce O’Neale: O’Neale got underrated during his time at Baylor due to playing a smaller offensive role than most guys. However, he played his role well, and that gave him the experience needed to succeed as an NBA player. Star potential is enticing, but good role players are the backbone to any team.

It took him 2 years of sticking in the NBA, but he been one of the steadiest guys in the league since. He always shoots well from deep, plays tough defense, and doesn’t turn the ball over. Every team wants that skillset in one shape or another.

Green flags: year to year improvement(6+ BPM last 2 years, 9+ BPM last year, 3+ BPM all 4 years) improved BPM by at least 3 over last 2 seasons)3PT%(43.8% on 112 attempts in 2015, 44.8% on 58 attempts in 2014) AST%(21.1), DPBM(3.2 in 2015)

T.J. McConnell: T.J. McConnell was one of the best point guards in college for a while, first with Duquesne, then with Arizona. He was a great pure table-setter who picked his spots on offense and played tough, pesky defense. His size and athleticism concerns made teams sour on him, though.

McConnell luckily landed with the tanking 76ers and got a role immediately as a backup point guard. He’s held that role since, excelling with both the 76ers and now the Pacers. Despite his unconventional profile, he found a way to make things work.

Green flags: year to year production(11+ BPM senior year, 6+ BPM all 4 years), APG(39.0%), DBPM(5+ over last 2 years, 4+ over career), AST/TO(3.05), STL%(4.3), rim finishing(70.6% on 85 attempts), midrange shooting(47.3% on 150 attempts)

Christian Wood: Christian Wood always had the talent and athleticism to be drafted. He was also quite productive at UNLV as a sophomore. However, his attitude issues shown there lingered on for the rest of his NBA career.

Wood took a while to get situated, but broke out with the Pistons in 2019-2020, earning him a 3 year, $41 million contract. He continued his solid play with Houston and Dallas, but defense and attitude issues caused him to have limited suitors for 2023 free agency. He signed with the Lakers, but massively regressed during his time there.

Green flags: dunks(57 in 2015), BLK%(8.0), FT%(73.1% on 156 attempts), REB%(10.4% OREB, 22.1% DREB)

Javonte Green: Javonte Green was a small school player without a jumper, which made sense why he didn’t get drafted. However, he stuffed the stat sheet and showed two-way dominance in a way that few would during his time at Radford.

Javonte Green took a while to get in the league(2018-2019 Ratiopharm Ulm legend btw), but eventually got a spot as an athletic energy bench wing, spending the last 6 years over 4 teams. This shows the value of always taking a flyer on athleticism, even if the player is older and not as well known

Green flags: Year-to-year production(4+ BPM over last 3 years, 7+ BPM last year), dunks(43 in 2015), REB%(12.3% OREB, 27.2% DREB), BLK%(3.5), STL%(4.4), FTA(208 senior year), rim%(64.3% on 210 attempts)

Notable busts: Jahlil Okafor(3), Mario Hezonja(5), Emmanuel Mudiay(7), Stanley Johnson(8)

Jahlil Okafor: Okafor was the most obvious sign that the game was changing. He was an elite college player, with 9.5 BPM as a freshman. He was a great scorer and had an elite, beautiful post game.

Unfortunately, he really didn’t have anything else. He was a passable rebounder, poor passer, and limited defender. His athleticism wasn’t quite good enough. If he was coming out now, he would be told to return to school to shore up other parts of his game.

Red flags: AST/TO(0.52), DReb(18.2%), BLK%(4.5%), FT%(51% on 194 attempt), athleticism, effort

Mario Hezonja: I’m baffled that Hezonja didn’t have at least have at least a career as a role player in the NBA as he could shoot, was a respectable playmaker, and showed some flashes of defense in Spain.

However, his shot bailed him in the NBA and he turned into a defensive liability. His issues with fouling were exposed on that endIt’s important to know that he got drafted by the Magic, who at the time had a history of developing players poorly. I think he would’ve done better in a different situation. Believe it or not, he’s one of the top players in Europe, so he definitely had talent.

Red flags: BLK(0.4 per 36 minutes), PF(4.0/36 minutes), FT attempts(2.4/36 minutes)

Emmanuel Mudiay: This is another player who would’ve been evaluated differently now. Back then, playmaking was a priority and Mudiay excelled at that. He also showed ability to drive the rim and some flashes of defense.

In today’s game the poor 3PT and FT percentages would’ve been a dealbreaker. He wasn’t a game changing athlete like John Wall or Amen Thompson, which would’ve hurt his ceiling. I also thought the decision for him to play in China didn’t make sense, as he wasn’t playing against NBA-level athletes, and therefore got exposed when he wasn’t more athletic than his peers

Red flags: 3PT%(30% on 3.0 3PA), 3PA(30 total attempts), FT%(58.1% on 3.1 attempts), FTA(31 total attempts), lack of athleticism for role.

Stanley Johnson: Stanley Johnson looked like your prototypical defense first wing with enough offensive chops to survive. He was a great player in college and it seemed like that he’d at least be a solid role player in the NBA.

Unfortunately, he had issues scoring at the rim and didn’t have the best feel. His jumper also wasn’t elite, and fell off when he hit the league. While he was a solid to great defender, that isn’t enough when your team is playing 4 v 5 on the other end. I would’ve thought he would’ve been a bit better, but the issues were there.

Red flags: rim%(53.8% on 119 attempts), AST/TO(0.77), FT%(74.2% on 4.7 attempts per game)

2nd contract guys:, Cameron Payne(14), Terry Rozier(16) Bobby Portis, Richaun Holmes(37), Pat Connaughton(41), Norman Powell(46)

Terry Rozier

Time with drafted team: Terry Rozier was a solid defense-first bench guy with Boston. He did a great job locking up the other team’s top player while showing signs of shooting and scoring in his 20-25 minutes per game.

What changed after he left drafted team: To be honest, Terry Rozier got a larger role. He became The Guy in Charlotte instead of playing behind Kyrie Irving. That allowed him to show his full scoring potential. Unfortunately, during this time, his defense massively regressed, making him unappealing to most winning teams.

Cameron Payne

Time with drafted team: During his time in OKC, Cameron Payne was best known for his pregame dancing. He was pretty terrible about the basketball aspect of things. He continued the aforementioned mediocrity with Chicago and Cleveland.

What changed after he left drafted team: During an 8-game sample in 2020, he played outstanding in the bubble. Then, he played great a year later for Phoenix. He has continued to be a solid albeit frustrating backup since, getting various roles around the NBA.

Bobby Portis

Time with drafted team: Bobby Portis showed flashes of his potential with the Bulls and Wizards, but massively regressed during a season in New York due to playing next to too many power forwards

What changed after he left drafted team: Portis is technically a third contract guy, but he got an optimal role as a sixth man. This allowed him to play small ball center and not worry too much about his defense.

Richaun Holmes

Time with drafted team: Richaun Holmes was a solid backup centerduring his time as a 76er and Sun, but never got the opportunity to play as a full time starter, limiting his value.

What changed after he left drafted team: Richaun Holmes finally had the opportunity to start and took full advantage of it. He kept his impact metrics strong while having the best numbers of his career. After his big contract, he wasn’t the same, but at least he hit his full potential for a bit.

Norman Powell

Time with drafted team: Norman Powell first got mintutes on the Raptors for playing tough defense. He was also known for his playoff play in 2017, which caused Ujiri to sign him to an extension in the first place.

What changed after he left drafted team: The funny thing is that Powell didn’t immediately leave his drafted team. He just got a bigger role, going from backup to starter. During this time, he massively improved both his 3 point volume and percentage, becoming one of the best marksmen in the league.

Overview: When looking at this class, there were 13 freshmen, 8 sophomores, 8 juniors, 17 seniors, 13 international players, and 1 high school postgraduate. All 13 freshmen got drafted in the first round, with 8 of them going in the lottery. The rest of the lottery included 1 sophomore, 1 junior, 1 senior, and 3 international guys.

When it came to who’s in the still in the league, only 13 of the 60 players are still there(Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell, Kristaps Porzingis, Myles Turner, Devin Booker, Kelly Oubre, Terry Rozier, Bobby Portis, Tyus Jones, Larry Nance Jr., Kevon Looney). This includes only 3 of the top 10 players, a surprisingly small amount. It also includes 11 of 30 players drafted in the first round. This list doesn’t include players who I expect to be signed but currently don’t have a team like Trey Lyles, Cameron Payne, and Delon Wright.

In the second round, only 15 of the 30 players actually stepped foot on an NBA court. 8 of those guys were international, showing the popularity of the draft and stash at the time. There was also 1 first rounder who never stepped on an NBA court. He was also an international player.

When looking at the guys who made the top 30, it included 9 freshmen, 5 sophomores, 2 juniors, 11 seniors, and 3 international players. In the top 5, it was 4 freshmen and 1 international player, while in the top 10 it was 4 freshmen, 2 sophomores, 2 seniors, 1 junior, and 1 international player. In the top 20, that numbers went to 7 freshmen, 3 sophomores, 2 juniors, 7 seniors, and 1 international player.

Out of the 46 domestic players drafted, 44 had a BPM above 3.0. That included every freshman, sophomore, and junior. In fact the only 2 players with a sub-3.0 BPM were both seniors. Very interesting to see.

When it came to schools guys were drafted from, 12/13 freshmen, 7/8 sophomores, 6/8 juniors, and 13/17 seniors all came from Power 5 schools. That totals 38 out of 46 guys going to Power 5 schools. In the top 30, that included 23 out of 27 guys.

In my top 30, 9 of the top 10 guys were power 5 guys. 17 of the top 20 were Power 5 guys, and 23 out of 30 were power 5 guys. The first player who wasn’t a Power 5 guy on the list was Larry Nance Jr. at 17th.

When it came to positions on who were drafted, 10 guards were drafted, 9 wings, and 11 bigs in the first round. There were 17 guards, 21 wings, and 22 bigs drafted overall.

In my top 30, there were 5 bigs, 4 guards, and 1 wing in the top 10. There were 8 guards, 3 wings, and 9 bigs in the top 20, and 10 guards, 8 wings, 12 bigs my top 30. When it came to small guards(6’3” and under), 1 was drafted in the lottery, 3 were drafted in the top 30 and 4 were drafted overall. This showed how things were changing. The first small guard drafted was Cameron Payne at 14th overall.

When it came to draft position, all of the my 5 players in this draft were in the lottery, which included the 1st, 2nd, and 4th overall picks. The rest of my top 10 were outside the lottery, with 3 players being drafted in the second round. When you look at my top 20, there were more 3 undrafted guys and 1 more second round pick without any lottery guys being drafted. When my top 30 was finished, there were 10 lottery guys, 9 other first round picks 7 second round picks, and 4 undrafted players

Out of all 60 players, only 7 earned a second contract with their original(Karl-Anthony Towns, Justise Winslow, Myles Turner, Kevon Looney, Cedi Osman, Josh Richardson, Norman Powell). 4 more earned a second contract with a team they got traded to during their rookie contract(Kristaps Porzingis, Kelly Oubre, Jr., Larry Nance Jr. Montrezl Harrell). There were a few more involved in large sign and trades(D’Angelo Russell, Terry Rozier)

Finally, all 4 All-Stars(Karl Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell, Kristaps Porzingis, and Devin Booker) were drafted in the lottery. The only pick that I would say is surp

Overall, this draft was both disappointing and surprising. There were only 4 players in the lottery that lived up to their potential, but this class had great contributions from late first, second round, and undrafted players. It definitely isn’t what you would call an all-time great class, but also not terrible. I am shocked at how few players are still in the league, though.

What I learned from this: The first thing I learned is that the draft is an unpredictable process. There are players who will break out late, players who will bust unexpectedly, and players who impact the game from deep in the undrafted ranks. There are players whose skillsets will unexpectedly change, like Karl-Anthony Towns turning into a great 3 point shooter and Norman Powell going from defensive specialist to high-level sniper.

It is still important to realize that most stars will be picked early. 3 of the top 5 players were picked in the top 4 and the other two guys were in the lottery. When you’re drafting in the top 5(and even top 10, look for star upside, not role-player upside). I would say prioritize drafting freshmen unless there’s an upperclassman who has elite metrics and star-level traits.

After the top 10, you’re pretty unlikely to find a star. It makes sense to go for the best role player available, even in the late lottery. This is where you should start looking at upperclassmen who are immediately NBA-ready.

There are usually only around 20 useful players in a draft. I would say so for this draft. Any pick after pick 20 is a dart throw, and it’s okay to miss on them. Just make sure to use good scouting process when making them. Good teams will always hit on their late picks compared to bad teams.

One trend I saw was the draft and stash. That has become a lot less popular over recent years, thanks to the new CBA valuing second round picks due to cheap value. I like this change, as many draft and stash players never made the league.

All of the second rounders and UDFA’s who were steals: had a few things in common at least 2 5 BPM years(minus Christian Wood), plus athleticism, and outlier statistical traits. Avoid looking for guys who broke out senior year unless you see actually translatable skills or production.

Three of the four 1st rounders who busted went to bad developmental organizations(Process 76ers, Rob Henningan Magic, Stan Van Gundy Pistons). I wouldn’t say the Nuggets were great with development either. It is important that if you draft a player, you know how to properly optimize them.

It is important to look for multi-dimensional skillsets. The biggest example of a team not doing that were the 76ers drafting Jahlil Okafor, a one-dimensional post scorer. That allows for a player to move to a smaller role well if he fails in a bigger one.

It’s also important to be one step ahead. I would say the reason why Karl-Anthony Towns and Kristaps Porzingis sucked while Jahlil Okafor didn't. This is why guys like Larry Nance Jr. stuck in the league while Rondae Hollis-Jefferson didn’t. It’s why Tyus Jones stuck in the league while Emmanuel Mudiay didn’t. One-dimensional players were starting to lose their value, no matter how good they were at that skill.

This draft was the started the revolution of position less basketball. Bigger guards were being picked over smaller ones. Wings who could shoot and play multiple position were valued. Most bigs picked high showed some ability to pass or shoot the ball. High feel players were slowly starting to be the norm by this day and age.

It’s more important to have quality impact than longevity. Being a star player for 2 years is better than an 8th man for 10. Longevity is still important though, as long as an impact is made during that time. There are reasons why players can’t stick in the league. Justise Winslow got injuries. Willie Cauley-Stein had a drug addiction. Montrezl Harrell and Christian Wood declined very quickly. Unexpected things happen, which makes sense. As long as a player has shown some impact, you should give him credit for the good things he’s done.

Finally, you have to talk about how much draft coverage has changed in the last 10 years. In 2015, there were no talks about analytics or BartTorvik. You didn’t have as many Youtube channels posting videos on players. Same with the amount of information here on Substack, like No Ceilings. Now imagine that with the front offices. They have so much more information. This has led to more informed decisions, and fewer mistakes. And that means more entertaining basketball.

And, that’s all folks. I know that was super long and wordy. But thanks to everyone who made it to the end. Hope you have a great day.