When scrolling through draft stuff on Substack, I found one stat very intriguing when it came to evaluating potential returning players. It was the BPM on BartTorvik, thanks to the expertise of Sam Wilson. This is because that number shows how much impact a player makes on their team. I also decided to only evaluate freshman here, as I find them to have more hidden upside as they’re often under the radar.
For the query, I chose 30% minutes share and 3 BPM as a freshman.
To help see the results of what’s happened to players above 3.0 BPM being drafted. I also shared all the freshmen with sub-3 BPM who got drafted as well, but didn’t use a percentage to get there.
2022: 17/41 total, (13 freshmen, 2 juniors, 2 seniors), 4/24 non freshmen drafted
Players drafted: Paolo Banchero(2022, 1.1), Chet Holmgren(2022, 1.2), Jabari Smith Jr.(2022, 1.3), Jeremy Sochan(2022, 1.9), Jalen Duren(2022, 1.13), A.J Griffin(2022, 1.16), Malaki Branham(2022, 1.20), TyTy Washington(2022, 1.29), Kennedy Chandler(2022, 2.38), Trevor Keels(2022, 2.42), Josh Minott(2022, 2.45), Kendall Brown(2022, 2.48), JD Davison(2022, 2.53), DaRon Holmes(2024, 1.22), Oso Ighodaro(2024, 2.40), Walter Clayton Jr.(2025 1.18), Will Richard(2025, 2.56)
Drafted players with 0-3.0 BPM: 11(5 freshmen, 2 sophomores, 3 juniors, 1 senior)
Players drafted: Blake Wesley(2022, 1.25), Caleb Houstan(2022, 2.32), Max Christie(2022, 2.35), Bryce McGowens(2022, 2.40), Moussa Diabate(2022, 2.43), Olivier-Maxence Prosper(2023, 1.24), Mouhamed Gueye(2023, 2.39), Maxwell Lewis(2023, 2.40), Devin Carter(2024, 1.13), Ajay Mitchell(2024 2.38), Harrison Ingram(2024, 2.48), Kam Jones(2025, 2.38)
Drafted players with negative BPM: 3(1 sophomore, 1 junior, 1 super senior)
Names of players: Emoni Bates(2023, 2.49), KJ Simpson(2024 2.42), Chaz Lanier(2025, 2.37)
Patrick Baldwin Jr.(2022 1.28) and Peyton Watson(2022, 1.30) also got drafted as freshman, but didn’t qualify for the query with a sub 30 minutes share
2023: 19/37(15 freshmen, 4 sophomores), 4/18 non freshmen drafted
Players drafted: Brandon Miller(2023, 1.2), Anthony Black(2023, 1.6), Jarace Walker(2023, 1.8), Taylor Hendricks(2023, 1.9), Cason Wallace(2023, 1.10), Jett Howard(2023, 1.11), Dereck Lively II(2023, 1.12), Gradey Dick(2023, 1.13), Keynote George(2023, 1.16), Cam Whitmore(2023, 1.20), Noah Clowney(2023, 1.21) Brice Sensabaugh(2023, 1.28), Julian Phillips(2023 2.35), Amari Bailey(2023 2.41), Donovan Clingan(2024 1.7), Kel’El Ware(2024 1.15), Kyle Filipowski(2024 2.32), Adem Bona(2024 2.41)
Drafted players with 0-3.0 BPM: 6(2 freshmen, 1 sophomore, 2 juniors, 1 guy who moved overseas the year after)
Names of players: Jordan Walsh(2023, 2.38), Chris Livingston(2023, 2.58), Ryan Dunn(2024, 1.28), Bobi Klintman(2024, 2.37), Rasheer Fleming(2025 2.31), Tyrese Proctor(2025, 2.49)
Drafted players with negative BPM: 3(3 freshmen)
Names of players: Jalen Hood-Schifino(2023, 1.17), Nick Smith Jr.(2023, 1.27), GG Jackson(2023, 2.45)
2024: 10/39(9 freshmen, 1 sophomore), 1/29 non freshmen drafted
Names of players: Reed Sheppard(2024, 1.3), Stephon Castle(2024 1.4), Rob Dillingham(2024 1.8), Bub Carrington(2024 1.14), Jared McCain(2024, 1.16), Ja’Kobe Walter(2024, 1.19), Yves Missi(2024, 1.20), Isaiah Collier(2024, 1.29), Johnny Furphy(2024, 2.35), Collin Murray Boyles(2025, 1.9)
Drafted players with 0-3.0 BPM: 3(3 freshmen)
Names of players: Cody Williams(2024, 1.10), Kyshawn George(2024, 1.24), Cam Christie(2024, 2.46)
Drafted players with negative BPM: 1(1 freshman)
Name of player: Bronny James(2024, 2.55)
Notable 2026 draft prospects with 3+ freshman BPM who are still in school: Tucker DeVries(2022), Braden Smith, Alex Karaban, Darrion Williams(2023), JT Toppin, KJ Lewis, JoJo Tugler, Kwame Evans, Eric Dailey Jr, Miles Rubin, Dailyn Swain(2024)
The first thing I want to look at is that only 9 of the 73 players who didn’t declare as freshmen and had 3.0+ BPM got drafted. Those guys are Donovan Clingan(2024, 1.7), Kel’El Ware(2024, 1.15), DaRon Holmes(2024, 1.22), Kyle Filipowski(2024, 2.32), Oso Ighodaro(2024, 2.40), Adem Bona(2024, 2.41), Collin Murray Boyles(2025, 1.9), Walter Clayton Jr.(2025 1.18), andWill Richard(2025, 2.56). I suspect this is because upperclassmen aren’t considered as valuable as freshmen, regardless of age. It’s also due to the NIL, as players are more likely to play all four years now.
Out of those players, only two got drafted in the lottery. I suspect this is due to the importance of age. Regardless, drafting non-freshmen has worked out. Donovan Clingan and Kel’El Ware look like future franchise cornerstones. Adem Bona is a decent backup. If you get the right player, a non-freshman is still valuable. An added benefit is that most upperclassmen are ready earlier than freshmen.
On a different note, two trends that I’ve noticed over the last few years have been the increase in advanced analytics like BPM for drafting and NIL causing fewer underclassmen to declare each year. It is also important that 2024 was a weak draft class, and freshman declarations increased in 2025. You also have to take in the fact that the G league ignite closed after 2024, which led more high schoolers to choose college as an option.
For advances in scouting, the amount of 0-3.0 BPM freshmen getting drafted went down from 5 in 2022 to 1 in 2025. For negative BPM, that number went down from 3 in 2023 to 0 in 2025. Teams are caring about production more than ever before. There are no more
The best players with sub-3 BPM have been Max Christie and Moussa Diabate. Christie’s been an average backup shooting guard while Diabate took his second team to get going.
The only sub-3 BPM who got drafted without increasing their BPM to at least 4.0 in their draft year are Bobi Klintman(2024), Maxwell Lewis(2023), Olivier-Maxence Prosper(2023) and Emoni Bates(2023). It’s important to remind people that none of those four players look like anything more than end of bench pieces.
For negative BPM, there have been only 7 players who were drafted hitting the minutes query: Emoni Bates(2023, 2.49), Jalen Hood-Schifino(2023, 1.17), GG Jackson(2023, 2.45), Bronny James(2024, 2.55), Chaz Lanier(2025, 2.37), KJ Simpson(2024, 2.42), and Nick Smith Jr(2022, 1.27). The only half decent player on this list is GG Jackson.
There are 2 other negative BPM guys who didn’t hit the minutes query: Patrick Baldwin Jr.(2022, 1.28) and Peyton Watson(2022, 1.30). Watson has surprisingly been decent in the NBA to my surprise while Baldwin Jr. predictably flamed out.
The use of NIL has caused guys to return to school unless they have an absolute promise to go in the first round. In 2022, you saw 5 freshmen drafted in the second round. In 2025, that number is 0. I like this change, as the average NBA draft pick is more NBA-ready than before. I can also say that the NBA changing the CBA has caused for teams to look for veterans when available, as they’ll be ready sooner than the rookies are.
When looking at freshmen who got drafted in the lottery 2 things stand out: above 3.0 BPM at a Power 6 school. The only 2 freshmen to not qualify for both of those criterion are Jarace Walker(2023 1.8), Taylor Hendricks(2023 1.9) and Cody Williams(2024 1.10)
In fact, there have been only 5 players from the list who earned their 3.0 BPM season at a non Power 5 school. Those are Josh Minott, Jarace Walker, Taylor Hendricks, Walter Clayton Jr, and Will Richard. Minott and Walker played at well-known basketball schools while Richard and Clayton Jr. both transferred to Florida. That leaves Taylor Hendricks as the true anomaly as the guy who got drafted from a small school.
So let’s now go to 2025. Using this query, there are a whopping 51 players who qualified for this list. 17 of them have been already drafted as freshmen. All of them went to a Power 5 school. Those players are Cooper Flagg(2025 1.1), Dylan Harper(2025 1.2), V.J. Edgecombe(2025 1.3), Kon Knueppel(2025 1.4), Ace Bailey(2025 1.5), Tre Johnson(2025 1.6), Jeremiah Fears(2025 1.7), Egor Demin(2025 1.8), Khaman Maluach(2025 1.9), Derik Queen(2025 1.13), Carter Bryant(2025 1.14), Thomas Sorber(2025 1.15), Kasparas Jakucionis(2025 1.20), Will Riley(2025 1.21), Drake Powell(2025 1.22), Asa Newell(2025 1.23) and Jase Richardson(2025 1.25) Liam McNeeley was the only freshman drafted this year who didn’t qualify and he was drafted 29th.
That leaves 34 players remaining from the list who are still on the board. 25 of them are planning to go to Power 5 schools next year. Through analytical evaluation from BartTorvik and film watching, I have ranked everyone in an order where you can see. Positions and current schools are noted for every player. Players are listed in alphabetical order per tier.
I have personally decided to not use any numbers in my explanations so that more casual basketball fans can understand my evaluations. Thank for for reading! Hope you enjoy!!!
Top 10: Jayden Quaintance(BIG, Kentucky)
Quaintance shocked the world as an athletic 17 year old freshman with elite defense and solid feel, but needs to improve on his jumper to become a true blue chip prospect. He’s also coming off a torn ACL, so I’m watching to see how he recovers.
Lottery: Amael L’Etang(BIG, Dayton)
Amael L’Etang isn’t high on most draft boards, but his combination of size, skill, shot blocking, feel, and shooting is extremely rare to see. He needs to increase his scoring volume and get stronger, but I’ll take the chance on an all-around talent like him.
Late first: Flory Bidrunga(BIG, Kansas), Karter Knox(WING, Arkansas), Tahaad Pettiford(WING, Auburn), Labaron Philon(GUARD, Alabama)
These four guys all were impact players at Power 5 schools who need to show their potential in bigger roles next year.
Flory Bidrunga did a nice job as a versatile switchable defender and play finisher as Hunter Dickinson’s backup, but needs to badly improve on his touch and feel.
Karter Knox showed flashes as a large athletic scoring wing, but needs to improve on his feel and take a leap production-wise next year.
Tahaad Pettiford and Labaron Philon both have a steep curve as small guards. Philon has elite feel and defensive instincts, but needs to improve his scoring, shooting, and strength to stick. Pettiford is tiny, so taking a leap as a passer, defender, and rim finisher is necessary for him.
Second round potential: Kanon Catchings(WING, Georgia), Jacob Cofie(BIG, USC), Isaiah Evans(WING, Duke), Tyrone Riley(WING, USF), Kam Williams(WING, Kentucky), Wesley Yates III(GUARD, Washington)
All five of these players show clear NBA skills to where I think they have some floor as a rotation player in the league, but much more.
Kanon Catchings and Kam Williams are both low usage 3 and D wings who need to get stronger and improve their feel to prepare for the next level.
Jacob Cofie reminds me a lot of Thomas Sorber, with his feel, defensive instincts, and size/strength. He’s much more of a tweener due to a smaller wingspan, so I want to see him work on his jumper from deep.
Isaiah Evans can shoot the lights out of the ball from deep but is extremely skinny and is a liability at pretty much everything else. He’s going to get a lot more on-ball usage next year, and I’m intrigued to see how that goes.
Tyrone Riley is definitely borderline on this list, but his athleticism, off-ball movement, and flashes of shooting make me interested. I’m interested how this year goes in a larger role.
Wesley Yates III is an athletic scoring guard who’s a decent passer, but projects as a negative defensively at the next level.
UDFA/Two-way: Christian Anderson(GUARD, Texas Tech), Mister Dean(WING, College of Charleston) Boogie Fland(GUARD, Florida), Ian Jackson(GUARD, St. John’s), Lajae Jones Jr.(WING, Florida State), Morez Johnson, Jr.(BIG, Michigan), Sam Orme(WING, Belmont), Moustapha Thiam(BIG, Cincinnati), Adrian Wooley(GUARD, Louisville)
These guys all show some promise, but have big enough weaknesses where
Christian Anderson, Boogie Fland, and Ian Jackson are all small guards. Fland is an awesome playmaker and solid scorer who seems too vertically challenged for the modern NBA. Christian Anderson is an awesome shooter with flashes of playmaking internationally, but needs to show that in college next year. He also needs to gain strength, as he was only 160 pounds last year. Ian Jackson is a solid three-level scorer, but is really lacking in the playmaking and defensive fronts.
Mister Dean is a a freak athlete who can score at the rimand has plus defensive instincts but needs to work on his jumper and improve his strengthto earn large minutes at the next level.
Lajae Jones Jr. and Sam Orem are under the radar 3 and D guys coming off good freshman seasons. Jones Jr. has feel concerns while Orme needs to increase his shot volume and play defense without fouling.
Morez Johnson Jr. is an undersized big who is an elite at finishing at the basket and rebounding, but has poor feel, limited touch, and fouls a lot.
Moustapha Thiam is a plus shot blocker with shooting upside, but is a clunky mover with low feel. He also needs to work on his strength and rebounding
Adrian Wooley is a thick, bulky guard who can score with the best of them but his lack of athleticism and slow jumper reminds me of Mason Jones.
Long-term guys: Luke Bamgboye(BIG, Texas Tech), Isaac Celiscar(WING, Yale), Corey Chest(WING, Missisippi), C.J. Cox(GUARD, Purdue), Damarion Dennis(GUARD, Wyoming), Gicarri Harris(GUARD, Purdue), Isaia Howard(WING, Iowa), Jaquan Johnson(GUARD, Bradley), Mikey Lewis(GUARD, St. Mary’s), Robert Miller III(BIG, LSU), Nolan Minessale(WING, St. Thomas), John Mobley Jr.(GUARD, Ohio State), Tyler Tanner(GUARD, Vanderbilt)
All these guys have clear strengths, but need multiple years to work on their glaring weaknesses if they want to make the NBA.
Luke Bamgboye is an elite shot blocker who needs to work on his frame and offensive skillset to stick in the NBA.
Isaac Celiscar is a high-feel wing who rebounds at a high rate, but doesn’t take any threes and is limited defensively due to mediocre athleticism.
Corey Chest and Robert Miller III are both athletic wing-size players who excel at rim finishing and shot blocking, but lack the feel and touch to be impact players at the next level right now.
Damarion Dennis showed flashes of athleticism and shot making, but in a very limited role as a small guard. He’ll need to prove that he can expand his game at a larger school before he’s even close to draft able.
Mikey Lewis has is a solid shooter who has shown flashes as a defender, but is a small guard who’s a limited passer and terrible at-rim finisher.
Nolan Minessale, and Isaia Howard are all versatile wings with good feel and plus defensive instincts but poor jumpers. Howard is offensively limited, while Minessale needs to prove that he can play against tougher competition.
John Mobley Jr. is a high level shooter, but his lack of any vertical pop causes him to be a liability at the rim and on defense.
C.J. Cox and Gicarri Harris are smaller guards who made a postive impact in limited minutes for Purdue. I expect both to be 4 year players there. Cox is a better shooter while Harris is a better defender.
Tyler Tanner and Jaquan Johnson are both tiny guards who excel at defense, but are a ways away on the other end. Johnson is 5’9”, so he has an extreme uphill climb to make it in the NBA.
Overall, I’m currently projecting 12 guys from this sophomore class to get drafted this year. This is a lot considering that the previous high of non-freshman getting drafted was 4. I have 2 lottery guys, 4 mid first guys, and 6 second round guys. I definitely don’t see all 12 staying in due to a combination of injuries, NIL, and potential changes in play. On the other hand, there were a lot of talented freshmen who decided to stay an extra year. I think the amount of drafted sophomores.
It is also important to understand that unpredictable things happen. Sometimes, a player breaks out of nowhere. While I have done my best to get all the correct information on these players, I am no soothsayer. I expect to make a couple of mistakes, and am okay as long as I understand my process of doing so.
There will be guys who get drafted after 3-4 years. This will become more prevalent with NIL around. That’s why I had projected draft guys after I made the list. I’d be intrigued to look at this in a year or two and see who got drafted and who didn't.
One other thing I must look at are the amount of players who transferred. Almost half(16/34) of the guys are playing at a new school. This is due to the NIL market, where players are always looking for a payday, for better or worse. There are also players who are trying to play up in competition, which makes sense if you want to get drafted in the NBA.
Finally, I didn’t go into too much details about my scouting process on how to draft guys through here. I plan on doing that way closer to draft time. This is just an exercise to see diamonds in the rough.
Like always, thank you for reading and supporting my content.
Amazing job Adam.