Trae Young: The Wizard

the nba never sleeps

I’ve been an NBA fan for half my life. During this time, I’ve seen constant moves come out of the blue, whether it was KD to the Warriors, Paul George and Kawhi to the Clippers, and most recently Luka Doncic to the Lakers.

In fact, the Luka Doncic trade was what triggered my sportswriting on this(article down below): app.https://substack.com/@adamamster/p-156327791. For a while I was hesitant, but for better or worse I went all in. It’s now been about one year since that deal happened, and I’m here for more.

In that year, I have massively increased my knowledge on NBA basketball analytics thanks to DunksAndThrees. This means that instead of relying on rate stats and percentages, I focus most of my analysis on impact metrics while also taking fit and other stuff into account.

When I first saw that Trae Young trade happening, I decided to make a tier list on where I thought he would go. Here it is.

All I’m gonna say is that I know ball.

I knew that a team that was seriously interested in Trae was not going to be a big time playoff contender due to his flaws with defense and shot-chucking habits. Therefore, I wasn’t surprised that the Wizards got him.

I was surprised how fast the trade happened after all the rumors(2 days). I’m also surprised that no picks were involved, as I thought Washington would have to give up at least one first. I am also surprised that Trae Young WANTED to be a Wizard, but that could also be due to nobody else really wanting him.

Here were my mock trades(aka overpays) for him(link should be accessible to all): https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ZrguVJVXut1_YPVzjVFtU_LqVxDNMz2jR1v_FLj9Lr8/edit?tab=t.0

It’s time for me to share the official trade details with all of you:

TRAE YOUNG to WASHINGTON WIZARDS.

CJ MCCOLLUM and COREY KISPERT to ATLANTA HAWKS .

Now, let’s get into the pros and cons of every trade asset involved in this trade

Trae Young

Pros

• elite passing(over 40% AST, 2:1 A/TO for career)

• INSANE range from deep(routinely hits 3’s from 25+ft) on high volume(7.0 3PA/75 or more last 3 years)

• draws lots of fouls(over 7.0 FTA/75 last 3 years)

• one of the best offensive players in the league(has been 94th percentile or higher in offensive EPM every year besides rookie year)

• still relatively young(27 this year)

Cons

• one of the smallest players in the NBA(6’2”, 164 lbs)

• TERRIBLE ON DEFENSE(6th percentile dEPM this year, only above 10th percentile once in career)

• poor shot selection(35% career from 3 despite elite shooting talent)

• limited at-rim finishing(under 3.5 ATT/75 over last 3 years, under 55% from 2023-2025)

• injury has limited him to 10 games this year

• inflated contract for player archetype($45M AAV for next 1.5 yrs)

• play has declined in recent years(hasn’t hit 10 EW or +3.0 EPM since 2022-2023 season)

• player option in 2026($49 million)

• difficult player to build around thanks to size and defensive issues

  

C.J. McCollum

Pros

• Plus shooter from deep(37% or higher every season of his career, 39.7% overall for career)

• ELITE midrange scorer(44% or better on 6 ATT/G since his 3rd year)

• solid passer for a shooting guard(2:1 AST/TO for career, 4 seasons with above 20% AST rate)

• strong overall offensive player(88th or higher offensive EPM since his 3rd year)

• expiring contract(UFA after 2026)

Cons

• positional tweener(17% AST this year low for a point guard, size(6’3” 190) small for a shooting guard)

• TERRIBLE ON DEFENSE(1st percentile dEPM this year, 10th last year)

• poor at rim finisher(under 60% every season of career with no season above 5 ATT/75)

• overpriced($30M AAV for rest of year, honestly though he’d get bought out)

• declining(EPM and EW totals will be lowest since 2nd year)

• Getting older(34 this year)

  

Corey Kispert

Pros

• Solid shooter(38% for career) on solid volume(7.0 ATT/75 over last 3 years)

• Elite at rim finisher(70% or higher in 4 of his5 seasons, with 3 ATT/75 over last 3 years)

• Shown improvement on defense(went from 3rd percentile dEPM last to 17th percentile dEPM this year)

• Decent A/TO(average of 1.5 A/TO per year)

• Club option on contract(Hawks can cut him in 2028 if he struggles)

Cons

• Poor defender at best(17th dEPM is career high)

• Has shown iffy play in the past(0.0 EW last year, declining EPM and EW over last 4 years)

• Low steal/block rate(career high in either stat is 1%)

• Not an elite shooter(only 1 year above 40% for career)

• Overpaid for role($13.5M AAV for a guy with a career high 1.8 EW)

• Long-term deal(2.5 years until club option in 2028)

• Minutes declining(under 20 MPG this year)

Now let’s talk about the results of the trades from both sides:

Wizards

Pros

• Will improve the team offensively by getting everyone easier looks

• Moves Alex Sarr to the #2 option and Kyshawn George to the #3 option(which should happen)

• Didn’t give up any picks for a star-level talent

• Didn’t give up any young players for a star-level talent

• Is still relatively young(27 this year)

• Will bring more fans to arena

• Will make team more appealing for potential stars in the future

• Clears $10 million of cap space for 2027 with Kispert being traded

• Team has cap space to spend in 2027 if this doesn’t work out

• Avoided buying out CJ McCollum

• Trae Young WANTS to play there

Cons:

• Wizards will need to scheme defense to hide Trae Young(doesn’t matter)

• Isn’t the guy to lead deep playoff runs

• Lost $30M cap space in 2026

• Trae Young has a player option in 2026

Grade for Wizards: A+

Evaluation for Wizards: This was a slam dunk trade for Washington. They had the worst roster talent in the league and were a pretty unappealing destination despite their cap space. With this move, they got a star level talent without giving up any valuable long-term pieces. Their offense should massively improve from the atrocity it was. I could see them challenging for the play-in in 2027, which would be an awesome step forward for them.

The other great news is that Trae Young is a free agent in 2027, so this move has zero long-term risk for them. If he flops(or the Wizards want to move in a different direction by them), they have the flexibility to do so in 1.5 years

Finally, the fanbase actually has something to look forward to. The last 2.5 years have been tough, so it must be fun to see an entertaining basketball player enter your city. Hope Wizards fans are excited about the future.

Hawks

Pros

• avoided a disastrous situation with a superstar(traded him 2 days after rumors and to preferred destination)

• improved team defense and fit with Nickeil Alexander-Walker as the new starting PG

• added $30M in cap space for the 2026 offseason

• have a more clear long-term plan(Jalen Johnson is the #1 option)

• Offense should be more egalitarian without Trae Young

• Got a long-term rotational guy in Corey Kispert

Cons

• didn’t get fair value for Trae Young(no picks or young players back)

• Kispert’s contract is non-ideal(2.5 years at overpaid AAV)

• Hawks lost playmaking(CJ McCollum won’t be Trae Young offensively)

Grade for Hawks: B+

Evaluation for Hawks: The Hawks were stuck between a rock and a hard place with Trae Young. He was a great player, but his limitations capped the team’s ceiling. I knew it would be hard to move on from him because it’s difficult to build around him. Most contenders value defense, and therefore Trae was off the table for them.

I’m glad Onsi Saleh had the balls to make this difficult move. Jalen Johnson has shown the capabilities to be a true #1 option and Nickeil Alexander-Walker has put up starting level numbers this year. Moving Trae allows them to have more roste

I just wish they got a little more back. The two players they got back were a 34 year old washed up CJ McCollum and an OK role player in Corey Kispert. There was a time where they could’ve gotten a lot more back than that, but the league has changed. It’s better to make the move now than lose him for nothing in 1.5 years.

THE REAL LOSER OF THIS TRADE:

Everyone is saying that the Hawks lost this trade because they didn’t get proper value back for Trae Young. I disagree. They made a much-needed tough move.

However, I can’t say the same thing about the NEW ORLEANS PELICANS. Instead of keeping CJ McCollum as a useful expiring, they traded him for Jordan Poole. While Poole was much younger and played well in 2024-2025(+0.4 EPM, 4.7 EW), he’s already shown signs of struggles(2023-2024: -2.6 EPM, 0.7 EW) is extremely overpaid and doesn’t have a valuable archetype. C.J. McCollum has been a lot better throughout his career than Poole(positive EPM, 4+ EW every year since 2015-2016), even as he ages.

And guess what? THERE IS NO POOLE PARTY IN NEW ORLEANS.

He’s turned into one of the WORST players in the league this year(-2.7 EPM, 0.1 EW) while being on an AWFUL $32M contract. He still has 1 more year on his contract, making this move even MORE awful. CONGRATULATIONS!!!

Remember, this is the same team that signed Kevon Looney despite having a center logjam and drafting Jeremiah Fears in this offseason. They have repeatedly ignored building a coherent roster of reliable two-way players, instead looking for big names to solve their issues.

I don’t think Troy Weaver and Joe Dumars are cut out for this basketball thing. Am I crazy? Or is New Orleans just that poorly run???

I THINK THAT AN ACTUAL PELICAN WOULD BE A BETTER GM THAN THAT DASTARDLY DUO.

I’m now going to talk about what all the teams who I thought were interested in Trae Young should do with their PG situation

Mavericks: scourge the market to get SOME veteran help for Cooper Flagg.

Trail Blazers: Honestly expect them to stand pat and make minor moves.

Rockets: James Harden?

Timberwolves: Collin Sexton? Keyonte George? Anything?

Heat: I really have no idea.

Raptors: I really have no idea.

Bucks: Avoid PG and get Jerami Grant if anyone.

Clippers: Collin Sexton? Keyonte George? Cam Thomas? A unicorn?

Grizzlies: Trade Ja Morant if possible.

Hornets: Trade Collin Sexton if possible. Keep LaMelo Ball.

Kings: just make COMPETENT basketball decisions(aka Vivek STOP meddling)

Lessons we learned from this:

The biggest one we learned is that it doesn’t matter how many points you score if you bleed as many on the other end. This is ESPECIALLY true for small guards, whose size makes it really easy to target on defense. Modern NBA offenses has focused on targeting the worst defender of a team in the playoffs, which limits the values of offense-only players on championship-caliber teams.

I will be curious to see how this affects Ja Morant’s trade value, as he’s said that he wants out of Memphis. While he is more athletic and a better defender than Trae Young, he has a lot of his own problems. He’s currently having a down season this year(-1.1 EPM, 0.6 EW), can’t shoot(31% from 3 over career)), gets injured frequently(never played over 67 games in a season), is a head case off the field(multiple suspensions), and has a longer contract(2.5 years left on $39.5M AAV(. I personally think his trade value is extremely low, and wouldn’t be surprised if no other team wants him this year.

Now, I want to see how this tradeAs an NBA draft scout, one of the biggest things I value are two-way contributors. Players who are liabilities on either end of the floor WILL be exposed by NBA teams when it comes to tight playoff matchups. If I was a GM, my goal would be to win a championship, NOT find the next 20 point per game scorer. That might include making a tough trade or two if necessary.

This is exactly why I was so low on Jeremiah Fears compared to consensus this year. I had him 36th, when most big boards had him in the lottery(my big board is here): https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Z9MOkU16gZLtHFe7iIrEcGdFzSjyMpqxU-vNWva9aTo/edit?tab=t.0 I knew that his lack of size(6’2”, 175) and inconsistent offensive skillset(53% at the rim, 28% from 3, 1.2 A/TO) would cause problems in the NBA. Even his high level outcomes wouldn’t lead to winning basketball due to potential defensive concerns in his game(1.2 DPBM).

You can see the true risk of drafting this type of player with Rob Dillingham. Even though he played well in college, he’s been AWFUL in the NBA. Like UNPLAYABLE bad(-6.1 EPM, -0.6 EW this year) . Minnesota is barely playing him minutes. His shooting has been HORRENDOUS this year.(41.1% TS, 37.8% EFG) He’s still turnover prone(18% TO). I wouldn’t be surprised if they decline his 4th year team option and him going out of the league soon after.

Another guy I want to talk about is Keyonte George. While he is having a great offensive season(94th percentile O-EPM), I have long-term concerns about him. This is because he’s arguably the WORST defensive guard in the entire league(1st percentile D-EPM) . I personally think that the Jazz should offer him a reasonable extension for sixth man money($17M/yr or so), but if he rejects, they should sell high on him. I would not want to be spending a ton of money on a guy who can’t play defense in 2026.

Finally, I have to talk about Darius Acuff Jr. in this year’s draft. He’s one of the most talented offensive players due to his combination of three level scoring(66.7% at rim, 43.2% from 3), athleticism(4 dunks, 1.5% BLK), and playmaking(34% AST, 2.9 A/TO). However, his small size(6’1” 175), low DPBM(0.5), and poor steal rate(1.6%) gives me concerns about his ability to impact winning basketball. Therefore, I see his ideal role in the NBA as a sixth man and not as a true starter in the league.

One key reminder is to not automatically hate on every small guard out there. Like with every discussion, there is nuance. I still believe that there is an avenue to small guards succeeding in the NBA. Some of the key things to look for in small guards for NBA success are playmaking(2:1 A/TO), defense(steal rate/DBPM), 3P shooting, at rim finishing(55% on rim attempts), athleticism(dunk total>0, BLK%>0.5), and size(180+ lbs). These skills give the player some sort of floor to stick in the league.

Last but not least, I want to share some guys down below whose trade/free agency value has declined due to the Trae Young trade.

I’ll put the players in A to Z alphabetical order by team. If there are 2 or more players on the list on the same team, the players will be placed in alphabetical name order.

Here you go:

Coby White(Bulls), Darius Garland(Cavaliers), Ja Morant(Grizzlies), Collin Sexton(Hornets), LaMelo Ball(Hornets), Keyonte George(Jazz), DeMar DeRozan(Kings), Malik Monk(Kings), Zach LaVine(Kings), Cam Thomas(Nets), Bennedict Mathurin(Pacers), Jaden Ivey(Pistons), Rob Dillingham(Timberwolves)

Like always, I hope you enjoyed this article. I know it’s 3 days after the trade, but I don’t wanna rush an article for the sake of it.

I will also say that I’m on the road to 100 subs. I won’t ask for subs, as that’s not how I want to grow this account. However, I hope people who are interested in my content keep supporting me.

I hope everyone has a great rest of the day and is excited for the trade deadline. I am very interested to see what happens over the next couple of weeks. Let the chaos begin!!!